Assume I do [the decision]
and in a year it has clearly
gone badly. Write how that
happened — specific and
plausible — then say which
cause I can cheaply prevent.

Pre-Mortem This Decision

Written from a year later, when it's already gone wrong.

Prompt

Assume I go ahead with [the decision] and in a year it has clearly gone badly. Write the account of how that happened — specific, plausible, no hedging — then tell me which cause I could cheaply guard against now.