If [a decision] had gone the
other way, what plausibly
changes in the next decade —
and what almost certainly
doesn't, because other forces
drove it?

A Disciplined Counterfactual

What would change, and the much larger list of what wouldn't.

Prompt

If [a specific historical decision] had gone the other way, what plausibly changes in the following decade — and what almost certainly doesn't, because it was driven by forces that decision didn't touch?