What indicators point
to a downturn? What
each measures, how
often it's been wrong,
and why forecasting
this is genuinely hard.

What People Watch Before a Recession

The signals, their track record, and why the forecasts miss.

Prompt

Explain the indicators economists watch to judge whether a downturn is coming — what each one actually measures, how often it's been wrong, and why forecasting this is harder than the confident headlines suggest.